So, it’s been almost two weeks since my last post, when I ripped into the iPhone 3.0 release as undeserving of a major number release. I still believe that the coming advances in hardware will be far more significant. I caught a heat for that rant. And the hubbub lasted for a about a week, as I simultaneously published the story on Seeking Alpha as well, where I was called just about every name in the book. I guess those are the stakes you play when commenting on Apple, and the frigtard fanaticia. I’m pretty sure those are not real words, but they should be.

The reason I’m posting tonight, isn’t to provide some prophetic prognostication, or give you support and resistance points on the current bear rally, which I’ve been enjoying immensely. But I’m writing this post to let you in on a little secret. And that is that I’m pregnant, er, um…wait a minute, give me a sec, wrong notes. Ok. All set now, I’m not pregnant, but I am working on a special project, designed to help people network more effectively, or simply network period.

The New Landscape
Did you know that in this era of communication to the extreme, with cell phones achieving ubiquity, smart phones every where, the iPhone leading the way, and with social networking applications like SMS, IM, email, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and the dozens of other popular social networking tools, that few among us have solid professional networks. That’s because this whole social networking phenomenon is still in its infancy, the tools are foreign or simply ignored by most adults.

Well, that’s a huge vulnerability in these tough economic times, with unemployment rates approaching double digits on the national level, already there in many states. What would happen if you lost your job tomorrow? Do you have a current network of friends and colleagues that you can call upon for help. If you where up on networking, then you might not even need to make that call, because you’d already know the scene.

New Project and Pre-Announcement
Well, as many of my readers know, I’ve been spending a fair amount of time on Twitter. With Twitter, I provide live daily updates on AAPL and the markets, and I’ve been building an incredible network of fascinating people from across the country. A few that have led to business ventures, one of which is the subject of this post. So, in the 8 short weeks that I’ve gotten involved with Twitter, I’ve built a following of 3,000 people, have been asked to serve on the board of advisors of a very cool startup, and started two business ventures with some very interesting and notable people.

Needless to say, I’m a Twitter evangelist now. And I want to use my new found knowledge to help others. That entails a product, which I’ll be releasing soon, that will help people develop their personal brand, and build a vibrant professional network the way I did, which will open them to boundless opportunities, and therefore some level of security should the tides turn against them. More details to come in the next couple of weeks, stay tuned. And follow me by clicking the Bluebird below.

Isn’t it more likely that with the majority of new SDK features that existing apps will simply be upgraded to take advantage? Think about it, is Copy & Paste going to be the impetus for a new class of applications, or simply add a feature to existing apps that should have been there all along? Even the addition of the Map Kit, with the Google Maps Service, while cool, will simply enhance applications like Trails or the plethora of Geocoding apps out there. I’m sure it will inspire some new apps, as it invigorates developers to take a fresh look at the possibilities.

The fact that Apple has lifted the restriction off of developing GPS-based apps that include turn-by-turn capability, will undoubtedly cause new apps to be developed, but that’s more of a policy change than a new capability of the iPhone.

The big addition to the API, in my view, is the in app purchase capability, where applications can be developed that can manage App store financial transactions to purchase content or services. This could open the iPhone up to a whole new category of customer to business, and B2B applications.

The 1,000 additional APIs sounds like a lot, but if your a developer like me, you know that 80% of that is of no real consequence to the consumer, those APIs, or methods, are there to support the few big features or capabilities that were announced. So, the number 1,000 is more interesting from a marketing point of view.

The push notification will be nice, but weren’t we supposed to have that in version 2.0? Well, the answer is yes, but Apple underestimated the ability to scale to meet the demands of the iPhone’s growth, and had to go back to the drawing board and re-architect the entire back-of-house operations to make push notifications work. So, push is just a reaffirmation of something promised a while ago, only now, it will hopefully work and scale.

The peer-to-peer (P2P) communication with Bluetooth might be somewhat interesting, but didn’t we already have that capability with the built-in WiFi? So, why is Bluetooth superior to that which we already have? Well after talking to some Tweeple they made me realize that now we can do P2P without a wireless router, so that’s cool. Speaking of Bluetooth, many Bluetooth headset manufacturers will be glad to see that we finally stereo headset capability in the iPhone, something most other devices have had for ages. But that capability has been in the iPhone all along, it just took a firmware upgrade to make it work. Why couldn’t have Apple just done that with an earlier firmware release? Huh? Someone?

So that leaves the last big feature add, iPod Library Access in an iPhone 3rd party App. Woohoo! So now Apple says you can create applications that compete with our front line apps? I don’t get it, this is a big feature, to be able to do something we can already do? Yah, I get it, now developers can dream up new ways to access my music and audio books. Ooh, I’ve got a big chill running down my spine.

Just give me video and a 3 megapixel camera with a flash, Oh, and longer battery life, and I’ll be happy.

The website is a super aggregator that syndicates the best tech news on the web, from blogs and online magazines. It will also include exclusive content and special features still in the garage. There’s a decided slant towards news about Apple and their products, but the site really includes a wide range of stories covering all of consumer, business and computing technologies.

The two featured columnists and editors, the odd couple, are John C. Dvorak and Ernie Varitimos. John is the ubiquitous man about tech (see his stuff here: Channel Dvorak), and well known as an Apple critic, however he’ll argue that he’s an equal opportunity antagonist. Try to tell that to those Apple fanboys out there! Ernie is a 30 year veteran technologist, consultant and writer, the editor of the Apple Investor in the Wilderness blog and podcast, and the ZenTweeter blog. So on the surface John and Ernie may seem at odds, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. They’re on a singular mission to change the way news is delivered on the web.

The Apple Investors Newspaper is just the beginning, in fact it’s a actually a prototype, the fully baked idea will take a slightly different and expanded form. And it shouldn’t be confused with the fine link aggregator site Apple Investor News, because John and Ernie have a solely different purpose in mind. But, I’ll have to leave those details to the imagination for now. But I would encourage you to check out the site and let us know what you think. Soon, in a few very short weeks we’ll have more to show you.

Apple’s ability to maintain a respectable level while the rest of the markets have fallen to new lows, is a testament to the its excellent balance sheet, superior products and services, and fanatical following. But why didn’t AAPL mirror the markets and finish green on Friday? Well, the reason, I believe, is that the Technology sector as a whole has underperformed, compared to energy, commodities and financials. The other factor might be the rubber band effect, where these other sectors have been stretched to unreal limits, so they are rallying with greater fervor.

Going forward, conditions look good for more upside. The current pattern has been surge then relax, surge then relax. This has been an overall positive for bullish investors because the upside potential isn’t getting burned up too quickly. In other words, buyers have not yet caught up with and neutralized the selling. So, even after 4 straight days of advances, we’re not overbought yet. Except for the 30 and 60 minute charts, which are skirting overbought, but the very near-term charts, like the 10 and 15 minute charts we’re fine. And the daily charts are not overbought by a long shot. This means more buying is in the cards.

The other positive, is that the last plunge created extremely compressed markets. This can be seen when comparing the downtrend of price against the uptrend of the momentum, illustrated by the MACD. This is called a positive divergence, and better yet, this divergence is capped by another very bullish indicator, a bullish cross. That’s when the fast line on the MACD ascends and crosses the slow line, while both are below the zero line.

Now, this condition is on the daily charts, telling me there’s more upside for days to come. But on the shorter-term charts, we have a different set of circumstances. We have negative divergences and overbought conditions. So near term the market needs to correct, and longer term the market wants to continue the rally. From this we can expect a high probability that we will get some form of correction in the coming days, perhaps soon, before we continue higher.

If we get the correction, it should be small, then advance. The problem is that there will be challenges and obstacles to overcome as we advance. The big one is resistance on the S&P at 775 then even stronger resistance at 800. If we continue advancing to that point, I would expect that we’ll become oversold, and a correction is likely.

The Dow and S&P are ready to go, but without all the major indexes stepping up to the line, this market is stagnated. It’s really beyond comprehension that a market can be this compressed and not explode. Today was the perfect opportunity for the Bulls to take charge, there was no economic news, no dire major catastrophes, nothing to keep them down. It seems the Bulls are either afraid to make a move or they expect someone else to do it.

The only thing holding up the markets is hot air, the hot air of the hellish abyss that awaits below. And is it prophetic that the S&P hit a low measuring 666 on Friday, and that level is holding. It’s a good thing, because below that there’s literally no support until all the way down at 480! Need I remind you that I predicted back on November 12 of 2008, that 666 would be the bottom? Wouldn’t that be a hoot if it ends up that way? It would be a monster call, made party on technicals, and partly tongue in cheek.

As I write this post, it’s just after midnight, Wednesday morning, March 10 2008. And the futures are green across the board. It started that way yesterday to, only to gap down at the close, then rocket up, then see saw the rest of the day. Will be déjà vu all over again? Or will this boiler burst? If it does burst, it will be worth several 100 points on the S&P.

A ways back, all the way back on November 12, I made a prediction. It was somewhat tongue in cheek, but a prediction nonetheless. And that was the bottom for the S&P would be at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level off the highs. And that worked out to be 666, at least the way I measured it using the charting tools with StockCharts.com.

The gap down we experienced today at the open, undoubtedly the result of the government throwing another $30 billion of US taxpayer money at the failing insurance giant AIG, will be difficult to regain. The Bears have thumbed the eye of they Bulls. And the 775 November lows look much further away now, perhaps almost unreachable for some time to come.

The real kicker is that while the markets continue to fall, complacency continues. The Put-Call ratio is still at levels that don’t allow any significant counter rallies to take hold. And though the $VIX, also referred to as the fear index, is quite high, it’s not nearly as high as when we hit those 2008 November lows. We need panic to turn things around, and there’s no panic, no fear, not even a metaphoric sweat! And that is the scariest thing of all in this hellish party.

So, the pattern I see developing has occurred three times over the past couple of months. It looks like a “V” bottom, with moving averages overhead. We rally off the bottom of that “V” for a bit, until those moving averages knock us down. We usually make it through the 20 day after a couple of attempts. After building a little confidence, we make a charge for the 50, we bump are heads pretty hard on the 50, which summarily smacks us down.

There’s always a twist to these things. A lot of people have noticed the unusual behavior of the VIX these past few days. It’s taken a big hit, dropping nearly 15% while stocks like AAPL and the indexes, like the S&P 500 have only gained a measly 2-3%. Most people might think this is a good sign, a sign of weakening volatility. But in reality, this move is known as a Smackdown. It seems that investors think that volatility is going to remain high, and that the premiums on puts just below the current level are just too high. So, they knocked them down. So now we have to readjust the VIX, where 40 is the new 50, and 50 is the new 60. So really, volatility hasn’t changed at all, it just has a different number associated with it.

Watch this video for an explanation

The markets made a good comeback as well, but the S&P couldn’t recapture the 775 level. Will it get there tomorrow? There’s some hope in that the market internals were good, with advancers outpacing decliners by 3 to 1 on the Nasdaq, compared to yesterday where the decliners beat advancers 4 to 1. But the key today was that the up volume was much greater today than yesterday’s down volume. That means more buyers today, than sellers yesterday.

The VIX was the big surprise of the day, it fell like a rock. Is that a bullish indicator, or something else? Well, I learned quite a bit from the tweet above from, posted by @coffeygrinds, a.k.a. Andrew Coffey, that points to a video of GroupOne’s Jamie Tyrrell who explains that the market thinks volatility is here to remain, and that these downside put premiums are too expensive. So there was a Put Smackdown. To watch the video, click on the Tweet above, then click on the Blip.tv link in the tweet.

So, if traders think that volatility is here to stay, what does that say for the near-term? I guess that will largely depend on how the markets react to president Obama’s speech tonight. After viewing the speech, I have to say that there was nothing in it that will get Wall Street overly excited.

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AAPL plotted a viscious bearish engulfing candle, as well as most of the leaders of tech. Of the leaders, only Amazon (AMZN) remains above its 20/50 day moving averages, but all the tech leaders have plotted bearish crosses on their respective MACDs. The Nasdaq is in very big trouble, with the leaders breaking down, it is on the precipice of a total collapse as well.

Once all the major indexes have completed the trifecta, there’s very little support from here. The bears can have their way with the bulls. The next level of support for the S&P is its fibonacci retracement of 666 off its highs. I wrote a post and produced a podcast, back on November 12, 2008, where I predicted that 666 would eventually become a reality for the S&P.

Click image to enlarge - This is the S&P vs the VIX (Fearless Index)

So why have I asked if any has noticed the crash? Well, if you look at the advance decline line, you’ll see that decliners are definitely well ahead of advancers, and that signifies broad-based destruction. But, if you were to examine the Put-Call ratio, or the VIX, they are indicating a relatively subdued and complacent mob. Back in November of 2008, when we hit the lows back then, the Put-Call ratio was rising well above 1.50, today it’s sitting at a relatively calm 0.95. And the VIX back in November was soaring abive 75, today the fear index didn’t show any fear at all at an anemic 52 and change! That’s incredible!

There’s no fear out there. If anyone is expecting capitulation, well you can forget it. It would seem that investors are fine with taking this market down, and down big time! Now do you notice?

I’m an optimist, a positive guy through and through. So, it’s been torture to report on the financial morass out there. Has it provided value? Well, I suppose it has, if I’ve helped people become more cautious with their investments. The helping part is extremely important to me. It’s also been difficult, because when you speak disparagingly to people about the company they love, it tears at you, because you know you’ll get a healthy dose of flack. In my case I’ve received more than I care to comment about. So, I decided to step back, and reflect. Am I providing value? Perhaps. Do I think I’ve helped people along the way? Yeah. But am I truly happy on this course? No! Isn’t their a better way? Definitely!

So, I’ve decided to change course. From now on, I’ll only speak positively of Apple. If I don’t have anything good to tell investors, in terms of the markets, then I’ll report on the things that make Apple great. Heck, I might even do that if the markets are doing well! So, I’m getting off to a good start with this new direction by listing the top 10 reasons why I love Apple, as both a consumer and investor.

Ok, so there are 9 reasons. Man, that feels so much better than telling you that the markets are on the edge of disaster! Now, I could go on and on, but I’m going to leave that up to you. Give me your number one reason why you love Apple and its products.

Trails lets you record your walk, and take pictures along the way. Trails makes full use of the iPhones GPS and starts a timer so that you know your rate of speed and length of time the walk took. Trails can not only record your position in terms of latitude and longitude, but it can also record your elevation. That’s neat, because our trails are pretty hilly. This first picture shows the terrain and a slide-out window showing the elevation plotted against the distance into the trail.

To start recording a trail, actually called “tracks”, you add a track and give it a name and description. When your ready to start recording the trail you simply select the Record button. This invokes a control panel that shows you your elapsed time and distance traveled, as well as your speed. In the upper right are two icons, one to select way points, the other to take pictures. They’re kind of small, but easy enough to select, even with big hands like mine. In the middle of the screen is a Google map showing your location.

Once you’ve started your trek, you occasionally press the waypoint control and an entry scree pops up asking you to name it. You can also take a picture, but Trails doesn’t seem to have any way to recall the picture and associate it with a waypoint, after it has been taken. The picture simply gets added to your camera roll. The picture does however, contain the metadata with your location, so I’ll have to assume that Trails will have an update for better picture-track integration.

When the walk is over, you slide a control over to stop recording, then you can upload the GPX data to a website, like EveryTrail or TrailRunner, or you can email the data. I chose to email it so I could fool around with Google Earth. But afterwards I created an account on EveryTrail and imported all the data and the pictures. I could then associate the pictures with the waypoints. Way cool!

NOTE: I wasn’t sure if TrailRunner referred to the TrailRunner magazine or this really cool Mac OS X shareware application called TrailRunner. I suppose this isn’t technically part of this iPhone app review, but I stumbled upon this software, and you should know that this program is awesome! You can upload your GPS data into it and do everything and more compared to the web-based EveryTrail!

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The disconnect comes when we don’t decouple news events and company fundamentals from the supply and demand realities on the trading floor. The term trading floor is more of a metaphor, as the Nasdaq and S&P stocks aren’t traded on a trading floor anymore, everything is electronic. But the basics still apply, where price is determined by both the supply and demand of a stock. And that supply-demand equation changes with the winds of investor sentiment, which can be affected by a multitude of factors.

Some of those factors are specific company news events, like Steve’s health, earnings reports, product announcements, etc. But sentiment can and is affected by economic conditions, natural disasters, and events in other seemingly unrelated sectors, like with or housing.

I said seemingly unrelated, but in fact the health of these sectors does have a tangible affect on companies like Apple. Consider that when housing fails, it affects peoples jobs and thus their ability to spend money on electronic equipment like iPods and iMacs. When energy prices go up, it affects the price to transports products, or travel to the nearest Apple Store.

Click image to enlarge

This chart shows that a positive divergence has been building between AAPL price and the oscillators (MACD and RSI). A positive divergence is when price trends down while the oscillators trend up. This means the momentum or optimism in the stock is building. At some point positive divergences usually result in bullish reversals. And that’s exactly what happened here around Jan 20.

Investors and traders are looking at these issues as well as a thousand other factors that can influence their buy and sell decisions. The aggregate of all these things result in changes in the sentiment of this mob. Technical analysis is nothing more than a way to measure this mob sentiment. The sentiment at any point in time is some degree of pessimism or optimism, and it’s constantly changing. Sometimes it changes abruptly, based on factors that have nothing to do with Apple, yet it affects AAPL price none the less.

So Technical Analysts are really sociologists. We use charts and mathematical equations to illustrate the mob’s behavior. We have developed a wide range of technique and patterns that correlate price movement to changes in mob sentiment. Mobs behave in somewhat predictable manner, however the analysis we use is not a determinate or prescriptive science, therefore the abilities of an analyst to predict price movement are largely determined by their overall knowledge, experience and artistic ability. Yup, TA is more art than science.

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There’s no other way to put it, the bears crushed the market today and the bulls are cowering in the corner. Unless we get the institutional buyers in here soon to buy up the bargains, there’s not a lot to hold this market up from retesting those November lows. And to be frank, I don’t think the institutional investors see any bargains right now.

It all started the moment Tim Geithner opened his mouth this morning, to describe the administration’s stimulus plan. Unfortunately, I don’t think anyone heard anything emanate from his trap. With all the hype that President Obama has been spewing about this plan the past week, you would have thought there would be some meat, some substance. But no, there was nothing but vagaries and more dire possibilities if things don’t work out. Where’d all the hope and change go?

I feel like we were snookered by the President’s build-up, and then by the weak showing of our new money guy, Tim Geithner. He certainly didn’t exude any confidence during his speech, on the contrary, his debut was pathetic and meager. And while I was watching the Dow drop 100s of points on Geithner’s words, All I kept hearing was that line from the song, We Won’t Get Fooled Again, by The Who; “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

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The positives are that the market internals across the board were fantastic, as the advance decline line showed advancers leading by a whopping 3 to 1 margin! The oscillators are all set to help the markets run higher, and buying volume was significantly higher than the selling volume earlier in the week.

The only problem is that we don’t yet have all the major indexes, above their respective 50 day exponential moving averages. At this point the Nasdaq is leading the way, but the Dow and S&P have yet to make their moves. Until we have all three markets above the 50s, there has to be an element of caution taken. But regardless of that, we have excellent bullish patterns setting up. There are many stocks that have cleared their 50s and are in the process of back testing that level to confirm it as new support. The levels to watch are 8478 on the Dow and 877 on the S&P 500.

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The rest of the market was on a mission to reach for the upper bounds of their triangle, but their 20/50 day moving averages were an obstacle that they simply couldn’t overcome. This is producing lower highs as we continue on this lateral journey which is indicative of more and more buyers simply giving up. Buyers are losing and the sellers know it, just biding their time. The longer we continue this long lateral journey, the harder we’re going to break out of this pattern, and right now, the bias of the break is down. It’s becoming more and more likely that we’ll see those November lows the more the bulls get rejected.

AAPL was on the verge of a breakout peering about its downtrend line. Other stocks and indexes at least had the excuse of resistance provided by their 20 and 50 day moving averages, but AAPL had left those behind days ago. No excuse there, the Bulls just couldn’t bring it. Perhaps it’s not fair to single out just AAPL, as this was pretty much the same story with the other leaders of tech. But what does fair have to do with anything in the markets? Nothing.

Amazon (AMZN) was a bright star this past week with its outstanding earnings, and breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern. But today it couldn’t catch a bid, in fact it printed a bearish engulfing candle which erased all of the previous days gains. This is not the type of behavior you would expect from a stock with such a strong breakout pattern, with the wind at its back. With this action, it’s highly likely that AMZN will backtest the neckline support it gained with its breakout.

If AMZN doesn’t hold its breakout, I would not hold out much hope for the rest of tech, and thus the leaders will no longer be leading. Will there be any stock left standing, ready to take the reins should the leaders tank? I don’t see anything that holds promise. So watch these leaders closely over the next few days, they’ll be the tail that will wag the rest of this dog market.

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It gets a little trying on the mind, to try and differentiate one day from another. Yeah, I know, each day is different in its own special way. And I suppose that we can learn from the nuances. But it feels like we’re driving down a long winding country road, on a moonless night and there are no street lamps. All we can see is the 300 feet or so in front of the car that our headlights illuminate, everything beyond that is a black abyss.

We took a wrong turn off the interstate several miles back, looking for that proverbial shortcut, and we’re riding low on gas. It’s been about 15 minutes, and there hasn’t been a single house or building, just trees and darkness, and the road is getting narrower. When all of a sudden the pavement disappears from under us and were grinding along a gravely dirt road. Dust is getting kicked up, some of it getting inside the car. And you think what have I gotten myself into? Do we continue on, or do we take our chances with the little fuel we have left and turn back?

That’s kind of how this market feels. Either this dirt road is going to open up to a nice comfy little town, with a gas station and road signs showing that we did in fact shorten our journey considerably, or the road is going to end, and the car is going to stall dead, out of gas. Oh yeah, no bars on the iPhone.

Since Thanksgiving the markets have been slowly grinding their way down. The trend has been relatively weak, but make no mistake, it is a downtrend, and the longer it continues, the more bearish it becomes. December provided some relief, but January marked one of the worst, if not the worst performance in market history. Unfortunately February may not be much better.

Apple (AAPL) and the other leaders of tech (GOOG, RIMM, AMZN) have actually performed better than the indexes, even better than the wider tech sector. Perhaps this should come as too much of a surprise, they are all quality companies with little or no debt. That will be the key for investing success in other markets as well, to look for companies with little or no debt, and leaders in their respective sectors.

But right now we’re faced with a moment of truth, so to speak. All the indexes have been forming a lateral basing pattern that has developed into a well defined wedge. And that wedge is narrowing, and very near its apex. There are two possible outcomes to such patterns, either the markets continue there larger direction, in this case that would be down, or they break upwards. In either case, the break will be sharp.

The interesting thing is that the tech leaders like Apple are biased to the upside, because they are all sitting on top of their respective 50 day moving averages on the daily charts. This is in direct opposition to the indexes, which are all below their 20 and 50 day moving averages. These moving averages are providing resistance to the indexes, and support to AAPL, RIMM, GOOG and AMZN. If the entire market breaks down, there is little that these tech giants can do to stop that falling tide. They will fall as well, perhaps not as much as the rest of the market, and thus setting up good buying opportunities.

Should the markets find a way to break out to the upside of these lateral patterns, then that move will likely be violent. I believe this is the less likely case. The more likely case is that we break to the downside, and revisit the November lows. A strong move down will setup some good longer term plays. For the time being, it is just too volatile to predict the direction, and thus best to remain cash.

Following is a partial list of the Apple and Mac notables that I follow on Twitter. Click here to download a spreadsheet containing a larger list. The Link column in the table below contains the web link to the Twitter user’s page or feed. The Web column has a link to the user’s blog or website. Just click on the Link to go right to the user’s feed to view their current Tweets.

I highly recommend that you check these Twitterers out and consider following them. You can also watch their tweets, and see who they talk to on a regular basis and see if they are someone you would like to follow, and even join in on the conversation. That’s what it’s all about. I will be publishing more lists of notable people that I think are worthy to follow.

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The Link column in the table below contains the web link to the Twitter user’s page or feed. The Web link is usually the user’s blog. Just click on the Link to go right to the user’s feed to view their current Tweets.

I highly recommend that you check these Twitterers out and consider following them. You can also watch their tweets, and see who they talk to on a regular basis and see if they are someone you would like to follow, and even join in on the conversation. That’s what it’s all about. The next list of Twits that I will publish will contain notables in the Apple and Mac community.

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One of my suggestions was that you start following people of influence. What I mean is that there are people on Twitter that are universally accepted as accomplished, or giants in their respective field. These people are relatively easy to find in Twitter, if you know their name. Then you simply click the “Find People” tab located at the top of your twitter web page, and use the form to find the person you want to follow, then follow them. Their tweets will then appear in your Twitter page, or what some call their Twitter feed.

The other way to find influential people is to look at who someone else is following. So for example, I follow a fairly wide range of people, from very popular to not so popular. But all the people I follow, I do so because they provide value. I have found that being on Twitter is like getting serindipity on demand. It’s unbelievable all the information I find through other people that I would have never come across otherwise. Timely things too!

If you want to be really focused, alot of these influential or popular people don’t follow many people, but who they do follow are usually their peers. So, look at who influential people are following as candidates for you to follow.

Here’s a great way to find influential or popular people to follow. Go find the most popular people by selecting the Twitter Elite at Twitter Grader or, the people with the most followers at Twitterholic.

In my next segment I’m going to provide a list of influential people on Twitter both from the financial world and from the Apple ecosphere.

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AAPL also had a spectacular day. It managed to break through its 50 day exponential moving average at 92.47. That’s huge! Every time we break through one of these critical resistance levels, it then becomes support. Which means that will make it easier for investors to reach for higher levels in the future.

The only caveat to this move higher was the low volume. On big advances you want to see big volume. Now the volume wasn’t anemic by any means, just a little below average. True bullish breakouts typically are accompanied by volume that’s 20 percent above average. Now this is all Ok. so long as we can keep the momentum. And in order to do that we need more buyers. The thing is, that right now we’re very oversold. So, I would expect a slight pullback, probably to test those newly formed support levels, and then have those buyers jump right back in and run this up.

I could write a book on the wealth of resources there are on the Internet for investors and traders, but you’ve probably been down that road. What I’m going to tell you is how to tap into the best traders, the most influential money and hedge fund managers in real time. And you won’t have to pay them a fortune to get them to tell you what you need to know. All you have to do is Tweet them!

Many of you probably already know what Twitter is, and that a Tweet is like an instant message, or a mini blog post. But for those that don’t, let me explain in as simple terms as I can what twitter is all about.

What is Twitter?
Twitter is a free social messaging service that lets you receive and send messages in real time. There are many ways to use Twitter, but the easiest is to go to twitter.com and create an account. Then you can find people that you want to follow and watch the messages they send out from their Twitter account. Now, you could be a voyeur the entire time, or you can respond with your own thoughts. When I said it’s like a mini blog, what I meant is that each message is limited to 140 characters. But that’s not a problem, that’s Twitter’s brilliance. It’s up to you to say what you want to say succinctly to get noticed or responded to.

What’s the basic Concept of Twitter?
Here’s the brilliance of twitter, it’s all about getting people to follow you. But to get people to follow you, you first need to follow other people and Tweet. That is, unless you’re some super star like President Obama, or Shaquille O’Neal, or some uber geek like Kevin Rose founder of Digg, then people find you.

If you don’t really care if anyone follows you, that’s Ok too. perhaps you just want to be a voyeur, the proverbial fly on the wall, and listen in on what your favorite celebrity has to say, or if you’re an Apple Investor, listen to what I have to say. My handle on Twitter is AppleInvestor. The beauty of Twitter is that the more people you get to follow you, the richer your network becomes, and the more exposed you’ll get to the type of people that you wanted to follow in the first place. So, my advice is to find people to follow, and be very happy when other people want to follow you.

In my next post I’ll start naming names, the top 10 people you need to follow on Twitter if you’re an Apple Investor, or simply an Apple Enthusiast. I’ll also go into more detail on how to get the most out of twitter for your intended purpose. I’ll also tell you all the ways that you can tweet, like on your iPhone, and all the unbelievable tools that are being created to support the Twitter experience. For now, get your feet wet and create an account and start tweeting.

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The good news, if you can call it that, is that we’re not plunging into the depths of the abyss. The bad news is that where not making any progress either. And the longer we stay in this pattern, the greater the chances are that we consolidate and turn this sideways pattern into a continuation pattern, and that means down.

So, that’s my expectation, that in the bigger picture we’ll be continuing the downtrend. But, and that’s a BIG BUT, in the near term it looks as though the markets need to unwind those oscillators, like the RSI and Stochastic, which are generally oversold, and move north. This means the likelihood is that prices will then move to the upper bounds of their respective patterns. So, in the case of AAPL, that means towards 95 and hopefully then towards 100 and beyond.

In the last post I presented some fairly compelling charts, in multiple time frames, that indicate some near-term momentum to the upside. The chart I have included in this post is an AAPL weekly chart, that I distributed earlier today, with my email alert service. This chart shows that AAPL has retraced an almost perfect fibonacci ratio of 61.8%. That type of retracement level almost always provides very strong support, and it’s what has apparently supplied the floor for the basing pattern that has formed over the past 2 months.

The indicators that make me think we’ll see an upward correction before we see a continuation down, are the positive divergences that have developed along side the lateral base in both the RSI and the MACD. Positive divergences are very powerful patterns that provide a high probability for a bullish reversal.

So, you might ask, if we have positive divergences, then why do you think we’re still going down? Good question! Check out this monthly chart to the left, it shows momentum that is still pointing almost straight down. There’s not even a hint of reversing just yet. Perhaps this coming correction will put a dent in that momentum, but for now it’s simply not there.

Now, if AAPL does correct, it’s going to do it soon, as the indexes and AAPL are all consolidating their lateral patterns. It could happen tomorrow (Wednesday January 28), it could happen in the next 5 days, but I believe it will happen sooner than later. So, if the correction occurs, the pattern indicates a price potential as high as 120. Now I don’t think it can run that high, I think the previous high back in early December of 103.60 will provide plenty of resistance. Only time will tell.

The hierarchy of influence usually works like this; market over sector, sector over company. Then we have time frame to consider, where longer time frames usually exert more influence over shorter time frames, than visa versa. Keep in mind that these are guidelines, not rules. Now, one might argue that the action is all in the shorter time frame, which is true, but the momentum is with the longer time frame. So, monthly charts provide a longer-term outlook on the direction of a stock than weekly or daily charts. A concrete example would be that trend lines drawn on a monthly chart are less likely to be violated, than trend lines on a 30 minute chart.

Ok. So with AAPL we have a mixed bag, where some time frames indicate one thing and others indicate another. If all the time frames were in agreement with one another, then the analysis would be self evident. But in this case the shorter timeframes are showing negative divergences, which indicates downward pressure in the very near term. However, as we move to longer time frames, like the 60 minute, daily and even the weekly, we have positive divergences in place, which indicates that we’re due for a pop and run. How high is anyone’s guess. On the very long-term monthly charts, we are definitely in a strong down trend. And overall, the trend is still down. Here are the charts with annotations. Just click on them to expand.

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This is getting old, the market advances, the market retreats. Rinse, repeat. Apple earnings provided a brief moment light in the after hours, followed by a day of uncertainty. For what did the earnings call accomplish, other than to inform us with what we already know, that Apple is a great company in a market that’s in turmoil? Today was not a glorious one. We were not able to bask in the glory, it was a fight, as investors were stymied and repelled by the simple 50 day moving average. It ended with Apple plotting a high wave candle stick, a signal of weakness and indecision.

The only hope that Apple has now, is to keep itself above its 20 day moving average, the proverbial head above water. But the trend is still decidedly down, even after a 7% boost from earnings. And the market patterns are dragging Apple down like a lead belt. Yes, we’re oversold, but the MACD is in a bearish cross, and unless Apple and the markets can benefit from some incredibly good news and reverse this downward momentum, it will continue to grind down.

Many Apple investors pinned there hopes on Google (GOOG) reporting well after the market close today, and at first things looked pretty good with good earnings but very poor revenue. The stock got a quick pop, as much as 3%. The blogosphere and financial forums got excited at first, think that this euphoria might spill over to tomorrow’s market. But those hopes were quickly dashed as GOOG faded, and ended the session nearly 3% down. Tomorrow morning it’s GE’s turn, and if they report well, we could get a rally. But if they don’t, then the market will be in big trouble.

So the critical support numbers are 820 on the S&P, followed by 805. After that, the next stop is the November lows, or 775. For Apple, the 20 day is at 87. After that 82 should provide some support, then 78 after that.

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I started writing about the markets, with a particular focus on Apple, only since last summer. I chose the name of my blog, “Investor in the Wilderness,” with the pen name, Zach Bass, as a metaphor (my real name is Ernie). It reflects the real life story of a man, and his spiritual redemption, in a movie called the “Man in the Wilderness.” You see Zach Bass was mauled by a bear and left for dead by his comrades. He recovered, and set after them with vengeance in his heart, only to finally forgive them after reflecting upon his  hardened life. I was also mauled by a bear too! No, not a real bear, the figurative market bear at the beginning of 2008.

I resolved to take what I had learned, and with a big gulp of humility, I put aside all those emotions I had invested with Apple and its products, which kept me in that stock until it lost nearly half of its value. I believed so much in the company, that I was blinded by the fact that market forces were much greater than my favorite company. Don’t misunderstand, I had similar affinity with other companies, just not so intense. I simply let my emotions get the better of me. And even though I was skilled technical analyst, this emotion thing kept getting in the way of me profiting consistently.

You must understand that I love Apple, I’m an uber fan and user of their products, always have been (going on 30 years), and always will be; that is, so long as they keep that vision thing going. I love everything about the company, what it represents; the simplicity of design, the focus on the needs of the user, the functional works of art. But, since my falling, I have learned to separate my love for the company and it’s products from the financial instrument called AAPL. This simple realization has relieved me of great suffering. And in my Buddhist tradition, I felt the need to share this epiphany, and help others relieve themselves of this suffering as well.

So, I started this blog. It has become moderately successful in a short amount of time. All good. I had a Google Discussion Group associated with the blog that was quite active at one point, but it was infiltrated by detractors. The group was great because it garnered a vibrant community of investors. Unfortunately the nefarious acts of a few can ruin a good thing. So, I’ve started an email alert service. This seems to work well, and it’s growing. I still miss the community.

Now since I’ve been writing about technical analysis and trading AAPL, the markets, and other stocks, we’ve obviously been in a decidedly bearish market. The only logical unattached, present thing for me to do was to provide analysis that was truthful and unencumbered by my biases for the company which I love. This has not an easy thing to do, but with practice, it has gotten easier. And along the way I’ve developed somewhat of a following, some that see the wisdom in unemotional informed trading, who share my love for Apple. And then there are the others, that are still steeped with emotional bondage, Apple perma-bulls. This second group thinks I’m the devil incarnate. I actually get hate mail from these guys, many of which only trade Apple and no other stock.

It’s been very satisfying teaching thousands the technical analysis skills that I’ve learned from some of the best traders around. And immensely fulfilling that I have been able to avoid the suffering of so many, who went mostly cash on my recommendation back in September. And it has been equally thrilling to be able to teach people a more reasoned, informed and unattached approach to trading stocks. So, for the most part I am incredibly grateful that I have chosen this path.

If you want to be on the unemotional side of investing, then I encourage you to pick up a book on technical analysis, check out one of the many great sites on the web, I have links on the right side bar and reviews of books. Or you might even want to join my email alert service or subscribe to this blog. I may not say what you want to hear, but I will say what I think you need to hear. Subscribers of the service often contact me, and I make myself available to them by email or by iPhone. The service is free, so there’s no obligation, you can cancel anytime you want. And I don’t care if you like me or not, I promise to give you the straight scoop, to the best of my ability. Thanks. -ernie

What a way to welcome our new president into office, and especially this man who ran an impassioned campaign of hope and change. Well, investors today told President Obama, in no uncertain terms, that there is no near-term hope for these markets, so don’t expect a change in the direction they’re heading.

The destruction was complete, with the leaders of virtually every sector getting creamed, annihilated, destroyed. You know the destruction was complete when the leaders of each sector take it on the chin and with strong volume. Some sectors were harder hit than others, like banking and finance, definitely the hardest hit. Bank of America was demolished, down a whopping 29%, and Citigroup down 20%! The tech sector was hit hard as leaders like AAPL, GOOG and BIDU were all down more than 5%! Every sector was hit hard, this was evident by examining the advance decline line, which showed decliners had lead advancers by a 8 to 1 margin on the NYSE, and a 7 to 1 margin on the Nasdaq, with confirming volume of over 2 billion shares.

After President Obama was sworn into office, investors hailed the chief by pounding on the 820 level on the S&P, a critical support level. A level the bulls knew that if compromised, that all hope would fade. It took a few tries, but eventually 820 was pierced. The market headed steadily down from there, until settling just above 800. The 800 level isn’t that strong of support, more psychological than anything. So really, the only real support from here is 775, the 2002 lows.

So now the big question is, do we simply retest those lows and rally from there, or do plunge through them and establish a new secular bear on the S&P. We’ve been in a bear market on the Nasdaq since 2001, so perhaps the S&P should join the party. If we have both the S&P and the Naz in a bear, can the Dow be too far behind? It’s a dismal scenario, but a real possibility.

What about AAPL? What are it’s prospects in a retest of the 2002 and November lows? Apple has earnings to contend with, but if past history is any indication of the future, we should expect Apple to meet or beat expectations, perhaps even with blowout numbers, but offer very conservative guidance. It just might be enough to boost Apple share price by a few points, maybe even several points. And we have IBM providing some air under the tech sector’s wings, as it reported outstanding earnings after hours today (Tuesday, January 20), and it got quite a lift. But if the market slides tomorrow, will it make any difference? I just don’t see how it can.

So, here’s my prediction for the near term. The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq are all in bearish modes with momentum pointing decidedly down, and really not that oversold in all near-term time frames. This is not good. Basically we have a greased skid. So I see the markets, led by the S&P, reaching the 2002 lows, or 775 within the next few days. Apple will get dragged along and find support in the low 70s. At this point things get fuzzy. Perhaps we’ll be so oversold that a rally will ensue. Maybe we’ll be hit with continued economic bad news, that we plunge through those lows and establish a whole new hell. The other possibility is that we find a new trading range between our new lows and the 2002 lows. Now that would really be hell.

On the heels of the worst possible news that an Apple fan could imagine, investors rebound the stock with seemingly little remorse. But is that what really happened? Did Apple investors simply shrug off the news of Steve Jobs medical leave of absence and pump the air back into the stock? Hardly. And if you think so, then you’re living with blinders on.

If you lived in a world where there were no other stocks or markets, as many Apple investors seemingly do, then you would have to believe that this stock a titan, with supernatural staying power, not even the fall of the fearless leader can keep it down.

There’s no doubt that Apple took it on the chin in after hours trading from the News of Steve Jobs leaving Apple. The stock was down almost 10 percent at one point. This morning, the stock opened at $80.57, nearly 6% off the previous close, and at first it looked like AAPL might drop below 80, revisiting the November lows. But as the session got going, a rally ensued, in which Apple regained much of what it had lost from the day before. The stock settled at 83.12, down 2.29% from yesterdays close, and just a bit off the high of the day (84.12), plotting a hollow red candle. Apple regained nearly 70% of its overnight loss.

Normally this would be considered bullish. But if you were paying attention to the broader markets, you would know that the rally was due to a confluence of technical indicators and some government intervention, just for good measure. The rally was not due to the relative strength of Apple, but instead it was the combination of the extreme oversold conditions that developed over the past six down sessions and the support levels on the indexes. On the S&P, this level was at 820. It just so happens that when the index reached this level, so did the oversold indicators peak. And the rally was on.

Had this been a real bottom, the rally would have been much stronger and all the indexes would have broken through the support levels each had recently lost. On the S&P this would be 860. But this didn’t happen, in fact the response was fairly weak, as the rally was stopped short at yesterday’s close. What is more likely to happen from here is that we may advance a little more to unwind the oversold conditions, and then continue down.

The government intervention came in the form of a bailout program that narrowly passed by the Senate, where they released the remaining $350 billion of the TARP monies to president-elect Obama upon hist request. This was to avert a slow down in putting the bailout money to work during his transition into the White House. The plan was announced just a half hour after the rally started, which fueled it into the close.

As I said, we have yet to fully unwind the oscillators, so I expect the rally to continue for a day or two. I would expect the same from AAPL as well. But I think AAPL will find significant resistance at 85. Don’t get excited by this move, this is not a reversal, this is a temporary relief of pressure, only to resume the move down. The facts are that there is no good news out there and it’s getting worse. Unlike the rally we had in December off the November lows, it seemed that no matter how bad the news was, the markets simply moved forward. The situation is quite different now, every bit of bad news is another wound opened on the economy. Soon it will be just a bloody mess.

Shock waves were sent far and wide when Steve Jobs announced that he was sidelining himself due to complications with his health. And I don’t think the full after affects will be realized for several days, at least post earnings, which comes later next week. When the announcement was made last night, in the after market hours, trading on AAPL was halted for a time to prevent a runoff. After trading resumed, the price quickly dropped as much as 10%, dipping well below the November low, until it finally settled at about $79.52 (6.81%). It will be very interesting to see how the stock behaves over the next week.

The conventional wisdom is that AAPL is a bargain at this price. I’ve read dozens of posts from bloggers and forums speculating that tomorrow morning represents an unprecedented buying opportunity. I’m not so sure. While it’s true that AAPL has been remarkably resilient these past few days as the markets fall, it has also lost some key support levels.

Now, to most Apple investors, they will scoff at any attempt to apply technical analysis to this stock right now. They believe the fundamentals of Apple far outweigh price levels, support and resistance, moving averages, and all that other TA mumbo jumbo. But I think these investors are letting their emotions get tied up with the stark reality that we are experiencing at this moment. Apple is but one stock in thousands, albeit an important and influential one. But the markets are free falling, and other big name stocks are getting hammered. Apple was also getting beaten up, as it lost several important support levels over the past few days, before the Jobs announcement was made.

Look, there’s a lot of skin in the game here, and technical analysis is simply a reflection of the supply-demand equation around the billions of dollars investors have tied up in this stock, both long and short. This 7% sudden decline is somewhat of an anomaly, but is it really so far off where AAPL was heading in the days ahead? Probably not. It just got there a little faster. And does this decline put AAPL in a position to rebound, because the perception of some investors is that the stock is a bargain from a fundamentals point of view? I don’t think so, because I still don’t think fundamentals in this declining market mean squat.

The facts are that AAPL will be very oversold on the short term charts, but on the daily charts and longer-term charts AAPL is in a very strong down trend, and can easily stay oversold for many days, even weeks. Just look back between mid September to mid October, where AAPL stayed extremely oversold in both its RSI and Stochastic charts. With the market free falling, and the relative weakness AAPL has exhibited the past few days, and this blow of losing one of the most influential corporate leaders of our time, there’s nothing that I can think of that would boost this stock. 

So, the big question is, what does the earnings report have in store for Apple investors? We have a week of trading before the report, and as I said the market is in free fall. And near as I can tell, there is little to stop the markets from reaching the November lows, perhaps even drop below them. Will AAPL simply swim against this enormous tide? That’s hard to imagine. The reason the markets fell yesterday was due to a retail report that was hugely out of line from consensus, nearly double as bad as analysts were expecting. And you have to expect that these economic reports are going to keep pounding the markets for quite some time. And don’t forget, we’re in the midst of earnings season, and there’s a parade of disparaging corporate earnings reports ahead, that will each take a bite out of the market. When it’s Apple’s turn, do you think they’ll have blow out numbers? Perhaps. But do you also think they’ll provide an optimistic outlook? No way! They’re going to sandbag like they always do, only this time it’s going to be far worse than they’ve ever put forth.

So, how should an investor approach AAPL from here, and until earnings and beyond? Well, for the longer term investor, you have to believe that any price under $80 is a bargain Right?. But what about under $70? With the markets declining, it’s not so hard to imagine AAPL dropping to the low $70s. And losing 12 or 15 percent from here is significant. That would mean AAPL would have to rise nearly 50% just to get back to $100, and over 100% to get back to $150. Most analysts have 12 month projections for Apple in the $140 to $160 range. Let’s be realistic, how can anyone believe that any stock is going to appreciate 100% in the worst economy in history? 

If you already hold the stock, are you pissed? Why? Because Apple, and more specifically, Steve Jobs, apparently lied to you. It’s only been a week since his first health proclamation letter where he said all is clear. Investors around the world breathed a sigh of relief that their investment was sound. Then last night, the tables were turned. A complete about face. Most investors undoubtedly lost thousands, or even tens of thousands of dollars over night, some lost significantly more. Are we to believe that this was a simple misdiagnosis? Or was Apple trying to manage this whole situation until it was no longer manageable, and investors suffered due to their miscalculation?

From a trader point of view, you have to recognize and accept that we’re in a severe downtrend. And Apple is in a strong downtrend. And when in a downtrend, the only sensible approach is to look for short opportunities on strength first. The only time you look for long opportunities is if your stock breaks through resistance and successfully retests that level. And in a downtrending market, you want to make sure the market is rallying with you, otherwise you’re in the middle of an ocean with no life line. So if shorting is not your bag, then preserve capital, sit on the sidelines and wait for things to turn. The thing is, in this market, you’re probably gonna be sitting for a long time.