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Zach Bass (a.k.a Ernie Varitimos) is Chief Bloviator of Investor in the Wilderness. He has 30 years experience as a Tech Maven, Investor and Consultant. Zach has been using Macs since their introduction in 1984, and investing in the markets just as long. His mission is to help guide all level of investors through the Apple Ecosphere and make sense of the markets. Zach's take on Apple, the markets, and life pursuits, will keep your mind tuned.

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Apple Investors, the Fed Put a Tourniquet on Financials

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S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Futures got a charge over the weekend. It seems that the US Treasury take-over of Fannie Mae is going to be well received, if not with some apprehension. Sure they will rescue Fannie and Freddie from going belly up, but at what cost to tax payers? Some say $100s of billions. If you were holding Fannie puts going into the weekend, then good on ya! If you were long, then, well… I’m sorry for you.

Fed interventions like this usually result in a temporary bounce, or by some miracle it could put a charge in the market. I believe we should take a defensive posture and prepare for the bounce, followed by a weighty retraction, rather than hope for a rally. Hey, if the rally happens, then great! Just don’t count on more than a few days to the upside and use the strength to exit longs.

So, take heed with what the market has told us on Friday (September 5). Bad economic news, jobs down, and financials it total collapse, followed by rumors of a Fed intervention that reverse the freefall, essentially placing a tourniquet on the bleeding. This resulted in bullish reversal candlesticks on most indices and on many stocks. For example the S&P plotted a Bullish Hammer, while AAPL churned out what could be best described as a Spinning Top or High Wave candlestick pattern.

In any event the S&P retook critical levels. So what are the support and resistance levels we need to watch there? If on Monday we were to open above 1265, then I would say 1260-1265 is support. Resistance will be our old nemesis range of 1295-1305.

On the Naz we have support with the 50 day moving average, which is currently at 2328. Assuming of course that we gap up on Monday. If we do, resistance will be the 20-day moving average at 2385.

If AAPL can et above its 200-day and move above its 50-day at 169, that would be a major victory before the Tuesday’s Let’s Rock media event. The event will be held at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco at 10 am PST.

If past Apple events were any predictor on future results, then I would have to say that AAPL the stock will probably get an initial surge in price followed by a plunge in the same day. Then once the news filters through the market, and the analysts have their say, it will likely be perceived as a good thing. However in this particular event, there’s growing sentiment among Apple analysts that it will be and underwhelming announcement.


  • marcos
    No way to catch a break here. If they wheel out Steverino (dating myself?) and he's lost another 2 pounds and can't fill out his mock turtleneck t-shirt, its all over.
  • That's assuming he's giving the presentation. If they're introducing new products and services he will undoubtedly be the main speaker. I don't recall another product/service announcement where he didn't at least kick things off. If the lineup is nothing more than enhancements, then perhaps he'll simply do the intros, then delegate the details to his minions.

    No matter what he looks like, there'll be plenty of fodder around his health. If he does no-show, that'll fuel the fodder as well. So, Marcos, I fear that you're correct, there's no winning here.
  • marcos
    I hear you. I'm really afraid that *any* public appearance (even if he looks
    pumped up like 'superman') will result in swirling rumors about his health.
    They're being written right now by Rex Crum and the Marketwatch 'bad news
    boys'.

    I had some faint hope that the impressions on the future state of the
    economy would improve enough that we might see some extended optimism. But,
    this thing looks bad and people I know in the financial markets are saying
    that we're only in the 3rd inning. Scarey. And, if Obama gets elected,
    which my family pundits say he will, then we are in for a depression, not
    recession. The 5% of the economic marketplace that are employers who Obama
    wants to tax will have no incentive to invest or risk enough to lift the 95%
    of workforce out of the doldrums. Every day I hope for some wisdom and fail
    to find it by the end of the day. I don't envy your tea leaf readings.
    Even though much of what you do is making forward projections by looking
    through a rear view mirror you can't be accurate when the sign says rough
    road and curves ahead.
  • dennis
    OK Ladies,

    What in the hell am I reading here?

    You all sound like this is the ZACH BASS sewing circle.

    Wheel him out?
    Appearance?

    Nice to see that we stand by the products...

    Zach don't let this go the way of tabloid blunders out there. This is not news worthy let alone showing that your site is losing viewers.

    Apple is Apple. Yes Steve has been the Obama of Apple, just kidding. But Apple has direction and focus. Steve will turn them helm over to Larry and history will be written. Actually it will go to Johnny ives.

    So let's not SPECULATE about Steve.
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