A key principle in Technical Analysis is to look for multiple time frames to move into alignment. That is near and long-term charts showing similar patterns. This is where you’ll find your best opportunities, or risk vs reward, whether you are long or short. But when time frames are at odds, the risk increases. And in a bear market, the risk goes up by orders of magnitude.

At the moment long-term charts are quite bullish, indicating possible sustained upside movement over the coming weeks. But the near-term charts are extremely over bought, with negative divergences. A very bearish posture. Then we have the 50 day moving averages lynchpin. Should the bulls lose the battle at the 50s, then those long-term bullish patterns may just melt away.

Apple, for any number of reasons, has shown weakness relative to the markets over the past couple of weeks. While the market has gained nearly 25% off the bottom, Apple has gained only half that amount. And today, Apple retreated while the markets advanced.

Oh sure, you can make the argument that today’s performance was due to the poor showing at Macworld. But that is neither here nor there. The fact is that Apple performed poorly, regardless of the reasons. And more importantly it is in danger of loosing critical support. In today’s move it fell through both its 50 day simple and exponential moving averages (96.44 and 93.77 respectively). The only thing propping AAPL up now, is gap support as shown in the chart above at about 92.50.

As I mentioned earlier, the market’s short-term bias is definitely bearish due to the extreme overbought conditions. Should the market move lower, then AAPL will likely lose its gap support. The next level os support, just under the gap, is its 20 day moving average, currently at 91.48. Should AAPL close below the 20, then it will be very difficult for it to move higher if those long term bullish forces kick in.

To further complicate matters, AAPL plotted a bearish engulfing candle today (Tuesday, January 6), by completely wiping out the gains made yesterday. So, like the indexes, AAPL short-term charts look bearish, and the long terms charts show some promise. But given the relative weakness of AAPL over the same period, and it’s poor current posture, AAPL looks to be stuck in a range from 85 to 92 for some time to come.