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Zach Bass (a.k.a Ernie Varitimos) is Chief Bloviator of Investor in the Wilderness. He has 30 years experience as a Tech Maven, Investor and Consultant. Zach has been using Macs since their introduction in 1984, and investing in the markets just as long. His mission is to help guide all level of investors through the Apple Ecosphere and make sense of the markets. Zach's take on Apple, the markets, and life pursuits, will keep your mind tuned.

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Gizmodo Reports that Apple’s CEO Steve Jobs’ Health is Failing

December 30th, 2008 • Related • Filed Under
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Only a minute after the story was published the stock took a nose dive, dropping a little over $3 (3.5%) from its high of the day in about 2 minutes. It has since bounced partially back, so now (2:15 p.m.) it’s only $2 off the high, and it seems to be settling.

If this Gizmodo source is as reliable as the author (Jesus Diaz) of the story claims, you might think the stock would have dropped even more. Perhaps investors are desensitized to SJ health stories? Or maybe they’re waiting for corroborating evidence? If the story is true, and it’s verified, I think AAPL could lose as much as 25% of it’s value in the next couple of days.

In any event, the blogs and forums will be buzzing this afternoon, expect for calls for an SEC investigation. As the froth intensifies, and follow-on stories make the rounds, AAPL will likely test support at 82. If it breaks that level, the next support is the November lows of 79.14. If it loses that level, it’s anybody’s guess where it might land.

Perhaps it’s morbid to think of how one might profit from this news, but the reality is that the stock will move on news this striking. It’s interesting, but not surprising, to note that although the trading day is only half over, volume has already equaled yesterday’s volume. I get the feeling that most of the hedge fund and institutional traders aren’t trading right now, it’s mostly retail investors, who are far more fanatical and bullish on Apple. So perhaps that accounts for the apparent resistance to this news story? If the big boys come back to their trading stations, then things could get ugly.

  • Christian
    Zach,

    I've noticed your past couple of posts have shied away from TA and been more APPL news related. LIke your WalMart story. When I said ATT had a $99 phone, I know it was refurbished. However, if you check there are SEVERAL stories floating around that the move may be intended to coincide with iPhone upgrades at MacWorld. That was my point.

    With regard to today's post there's something I think you should address-- perhaps you can even slide some 20/20 hindsight TA in there with it-- and that's this: the notion that AAPL somehow went down the tubes when Jobs left the company the first time. It's simply not true.

    No one ever seems to note that Apple returned 606% between the time Jobs left in 1985 and the market crash of Aug 1987. 606% in two years!!! APPL likewise returned something over 400% from the period of Jobs departure until 1989.

    I mention 1989 because as hard is it is to believe now Apple remained dominant until that time.

    Now, did Jobs save Apple upon his return? Absolutely.

    BUT, did Apple or APPL crash, tank or otherwise go off the tracks when he left in 1985? No. And it won't this time either. Hell, let it return 600% in the two years after he leaves. I'll take that any time.
  • Gregory
    I seriously think that this move is another manipulation process on Apple. Everytime Apple is building a new momentum (by digesting an all news or gaining from a good news) we can a downgrade (Remember when apple closed above 100 or we can this "rumor" (in essence rumor are false) that kill the new momentum before 09.
    What bother me about this rumor is :
    Why this "so reliable" source would talk about the Health of SJ 15days after pulling out of macworld ? Don't you expect this kind of "rumor" to get in as early as the news from Apple about MacWorld comes ? Why this rumor comes when Apple digest the news of MacWorld and started a "good momentum" (the last two days of trading) ?
    And Finally this article is really unclear. It gives us some vague comment and no precision and will probably be forgotten soon next year even if there is no news by spring

    I guess it was once again a way to manipulate the stock. The news comes far too late after Apple update to be reliable. And people forget that NO NEWS = GOOD news in this case (as Apple should inform if JOBS is unable to perform his job).
    By the way,the only this rumor could have been "valuable" (even if it's probably a fake info) is by pretending that Jobs health is deteriorating because saying SJ is in bad health like that wouldn't be enough.. Why ? Because people forgot that he attempt the Earning Call. If he was so sick i don't thing he would attempt te earning call (and it was only TWO MONTH ago come on...)

    Anywy i guess 2009 will be Apple year anyway because Apple fundamentals are too strong to be so much attack.

    I wish you and your entire family an happy new year from France;)
  • gumdrop
    "I think AAPL could lose as much as 25% of it’s value in the next couple of days."

    Note taken.
  • You're taking my statement out of context. I preceded this with... "If the story is true, and it’s verified"

    I didn't say AAPL would lose 25% unconditionally.
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