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Zach Bass (a.k.a Ernie Varitimos) is Chief Bloviator of Investor in the Wilderness. He has 30 years experience as a Tech Maven, Investor and Consultant. Zach has been using Macs since their introduction in 1984, and investing in the markets just as long. His mission is to help guide all level of investors through the Apple Ecosphere and make sense of the markets. Zach's take on Apple, the markets, and life pursuits, will keep your mind tuned.

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Apple (AAPL) Not Immune from Retest of Lows

December 2nd, 2008 • Related • Filed Under

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Yesterday’s decline was very telling. A lot of people got very excited over the market 20% gain last week, and Apple’s 12% gain. But you must know that even though it was spectacular, all it did was set us up for yesterday’s (December 1) huge sell-off. And more importantly for the impending doom to come.

 

 

This chart of the Volatility Index (VIX), which I sent out to Wilderness Email Alert subscribers, show a very nasty pattern forming. As much volatility as we’ve had so far, I believe the grand daddy of all is coming soon. You can see that previous bull flags set us up for historic volatility, but now we’re setting up in a bull flag that is several orders of magnitude greater. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see triple digit numbers in the VIX.

The market is looking for a bottom, and it’s going to find it. But the timetable is not fixed and the depth of how low it can go is not certain. So what does that mean to the markets? Doom if you’re a Bull. Possible nirvana is you’re a Bear. You gotta short this market man! Enough said.

Now I was quite impressed with Apple’s ability to stave off the huge decline yesterday, but there will be no place to hide when this monster takes hold. Apple may very well see the 70s, possibly even the 60s. Does it deserve to be there? No! Is there any rational fundamental explanation for it? No! But mark my words, if we see 666 in the S&P we’ll see 60 in AAPL.

  • gumdrop
    Desperate desperate man. Of course you want the market to go down because you are trapped in your short position. So when the market rallies another 20% will you cover then? Trend trading never works because the trend ALWAYS changes. Shorting opens you up to infinite losses. Are you prepared to take on infinite losses in your insistence that the market must make it to your inane 666 level? Smart money covered their shorts in October Zack. You are not smart money. You were right on the way down, but you are sounding a little too greedy here. You are treading dangerous ground here Zack. Remember, Pigs get fat but Hogs get slaughtered.
  • I don't care which way the market goes, I just call them like I see them. By the way, the saying is Bulls make money, Bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
  • gumdrop
    Oh and doing TA on the price premium of derivatives(-vix)is totally meaningless, because it is not a market with participants. Its like doing TA on the employment figures...

    You are so full of shit.
  • That shows you how much you know. The VIX, as well as other derivatives are excellent models for technical analysis. In fact I find TA works more reliably with the VIX than common equities, because it's insulated from news events.
  • Bryan
    Many have said that the VIX is done because it created a massive double top. Will we retest the 7400 level again or are we done? I don't think we are done.
  • Bryan
    Market sold off on the 20 Day Average Again (S&P 500) and the downtrend line.

    Will be Jobs report be as bad as some are saying.... 500,000 etc....??

    I'm thinking of buying SSO if the market opens down several hundred points for a trade????
  • Bryan
    That was fun. In SSO and out SSO in about 30 minutes as the market continued to fall. Stepping aside.

    Areas to watch - 816 and 741 on the S&P and 8175, 8000 and 7449 on the Dow.
  • Bryan
    Got back in after the market went positive. What a fun day........

    I could have made several 100K but made a couple 10K instead. Right Idea, balls too small.
  • We're right at the downtrend lines. When a market makes a big advance you want volume, and we had very little.

    The Nasdaq appeared to crack the trend line, but filling the gap is more important, and it didn't do that.
  • Bryan
    I'm not touching AAPL right now. I'd rather place it safer and play the market technicals.

    AAPL has been weak. The last one to show signs of sales weakness.

    The funny thing is - they reported HORRIBLE guidance - much worse than ever before but STEVE (God) got in on the call and talked the stock up. That was some sales job.

    I love AAPL and look forward to buying it again but I like UYG and SSO right now.

    The market looks to be more horizontal and a break above those levels would probably be impressive. I'd say we get some fight on Monday and Tuesday??
  • Bryan
    Real Story on the Jobs Report

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/econ...

    Many have stopped looking and many are part-timers.
  • gumdrop
    All of the sudden so quiet. How is that shit sandwich tasting?
  • I developed pneumonia last week and have been pretty much out of commission. I'll start up again when I have the strength.
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