Has Apple and the Markets Hit Bottom?
Disclosure: Mostly cash, vary small long for the near-term
The markets had a nice rebound on Friday, only to give some of it back just before the close. And AAPL followed the pack. The rally can be attributed to any number of factors, of which the top contenders are extreme oversold conditions and shorts covering ahead of the G7 meetings.
And it seems that the shorts were justified, because as I write this post news reports say that the leaders of 15 European nations met in an emergency meeting in Paris today (Sunday, October 12), and agreed to a wide-ranging plan to support troubled banks by adding capital through investment and by guaranteeing inter-bank lending. US market futures are up too, although not as significantly as one might expect in a capitulatory event. We’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out when the market opens on this Columbus Day.
So the big question, the only question that’s on every one’s mind, “is this the bottom?” Unfortunately that’s a question the can’t be answered until we are well past the bottom, and we can look back and see the confirming evidence. This move by the European leaders may be an important part of that evidence. But is it the keystone event? I doubt it. And even if it were, it would be a foolish thing to assume that here, because if it isn’t,and you act on it by committing your capital, you might be in for a whole lotta pain.
So just for kicks, let’s play fortune teller. Let me know whether you think. Is this the bottom? Or, do we need to endure more of this financial abyss? My guess is that we need to test the ultimate Bear bottom. And for Apple that would be approximately 50, for the Dow it’s 7200, the S&P is 775, and finally the Naz would come in at 1108!
The three things that MUST be present for a bottom, and they are a gap-down followed by a strong reversal that typically plots a bullish reversal hammer candlestick. This reversal must be on strong volume and market internals must show a very strong reversal as well with the strong Advance-Decline line. Here you would like to see advancers outpace decliners at least 3 to one and new lows kept to an absolute minimum. So far we have the gap-down and the bullish reversal on strong vplume. Let’s see if the market internals come through to the close.
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October 13, 2008 at 1:11 am
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