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Zach Bass (a.k.a Ernie Varitimos) is Chief Bloviator of Investor in the Wilderness. He has 30 years experience as a Tech Maven, Investor and Consultant. Zach has been using Macs since their introduction in 1984, and investing in the markets just as long. His mission is to help guide all level of investors through the Apple Ecosphere and make sense of the markets. Zach's take on Apple, the markets, and life pursuits, will keep your mind tuned.

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Apple Tuesday Let’s Rock Prediction and Poll

September 4th, 2008 • Related • Filed Under
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So according to Kevin Rose of Digg, the Apple event next Tuesday will be all about iTunes 8 and new iPods, specifically a new Nano-like iPod. It will be in a retro form, longer and thinner like the original Nanos. That’s great, but I don’t see how that advances the Touch interface. Here’s a question, will these new iPods finally unify all Apple devices and computers under OS X?

There’s speculation that we’ll see the Nanos, and the shuffle get beefed up in terms of capacity. Hmmm, yeah, so what? They’re also saying that the price point will be lowered. I wonder how low it can go before it becomes a block buster? Apple isn’t known for producing low-priced products, and for good reason, they’re worth it. Besides, we don’t want to mess with their outstanding product margin, envy of the entire industry, do we? What if it comes stuffed with your favorite music? Or maybe a year subscription included in the price, that’d be cool! This could be their anti-piracy initiative that answers the thuggery of the RIAA while simultaneously slapping them in their face, the RIAA needs to be slapped!

Ok, from an investors perspective, let’s assume that we get these new Nanos, and possibly end-line the Classic, and primp up iTunes with new subscription capabilities, how will this add to the bottom line? Is there going to be a mad rush to get one of these nifties for school, or as a stocking stuffer? Will this be the next adolescent fashion statement? Is this going to put a booster rocket under iPod sales, which have been experiencing slower growth?

And what about stock price? Man it needs a shot in the arm. We have 3 trading days until the event. What can we expect from AAPL? Here are some scenarios, you can add yours if you think I’ve missed one.

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What will AAPL price do, pre/post event
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More on this topic (What's this?)
Buy, Sell or Hold: Apple Inc. (Money Morning, 11/10/08)
Apple (AAPL) at Make or Break Point (market folly, 9/8/08)
Apple (AAPL): Steve Jobs' Replacement? (market folly, 11/19/08)
7 Great Lessons to Learn From Apple in the Last Year (Stock Trading To Go, 9/29/08)
Read more on Apple, IPod Effect at Wikinvest

Viewing 5 Comments

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    Yo Zach,

    I think that the iPod magic is losing it's wow.

    Price drop will work for the holidays and keep the bank in the black, but I don't think it will be a block buster.

    Apple has something in the works and we all know that, but as I have stated before it will be sometime for it to come out.

    But you never know with Jobs. He always tends to work magic in ways unknown to us.

    Have a great one.
    • ^
    • v
    What Apple really needs to do is progress the iPod Touch to it's logical conclusion by adding the Edge data option. Call it iPod Touch+Data or iPod Touch+Edge. It would still be a "Phone-less iPhone" but would now include the ability to access the Edge data network in addition to Wi-Fi with only a $15-20/mo data plan. So, keep your plain old cell phone, and add an "always connected" internet communication device/iPod. In doing so, Apple and AT&T could now lower the price of the iPod Touch+Data based on signing a 2-year contract for data services. AT&T is not getting anything out of iPod Touch users, so this is a great deal for AT&T, plus it would help them subsidize the build-out of their 3G & 4G network.

    A subsidized 16GB iPod Touch+Data could sell for $99 with 2-year Data plan, and AT&T would kick in at least a $200 subsidy to Apple.
    A subsidized 32GB iPod Touch+Data could sell for $199 with 2-year Data plan ($200 subsidy to Apple).
    Continue selling the current iPod Touch with 32GB for $399 ($100 price drop, no Edge).

    To appease customers add stereo speakers to the bottom of the iPod Touch, but to appease AT&T do not include a microphone so that it could never be used as a VoIP phone. Personally though, it would be nice if the iPod Touch gained both speakers and microphone.

    At $99 the iPod Touch+Data would be a big seller. Also, have the option of pre-paying the entire 2-year data service (at a discount) so that anyone could give their loved one an always-connected iPod Touch without them having to worry about monthly fees or in-store activation, it makes a wonderful gift for the holidays. Then, offer iPod Touch data cards in retail outlets in 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, etc. denominations to extend data plans for those who want to pay data plans as a gift.

    Then, in the Spring (but no later than next September) Apple should release an unsubsized version of the iPod Touch+Data which would include Edge but no data plan. The customer would then be free to choose a data plan from AT&T, T-Mobile, or other GSM provider (or choose no data at all and just do with Wi-Fi). But at that time all iPod Touches will include Edge capability. Then, Universities would be able to negotiate special data plan rates for their students by competing the GSM carriers. The same for businesses and their employees. Then, Apple would have the market for both SmartPhones and phone-less Mobile Internet Devices.

    This is one scenario Apple could pursue, I'm sure there are dozens more. That's why Apple is such a great investment, not only do they deliver but there is so much opportunity for them to grow.
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    • v
    If you could guarantee me that the falling knife would land on someone from Marketwatch's editorial staff, or some fool named DeWitt or an idiot like Rex Crum, I would vote for the falling knife scenario. Can I get a video of that?
    • ^
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    Oh, and by the way, I will be happy for any scenario as long as they don't have to wheel Steve Jobs on stage to launch it.
    • ^
    • v
    You can't "end-line" (end-line? You mean end-of-life?) the Classic, some of us want to carry ALL of our music.

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