Apple Investor in the Wilderness

The Apple Investor Guide for the Rest of Us.

Today is Wednesday, January 07th, 2009

About the Author

Zach Bass (a.k.a Ernie Varitimos) is Chief Bloviator of Investor in the Wilderness. He has 30 years experience as a Tech Maven, Investor and Consultant. Zach has been using Macs since their introduction in 1984, and investing in the markets just as long. His mission is to help guide all level of investors through the Apple Ecosphere and make sense of the markets. Zach's take on Apple, the markets, and life pursuits, will keep your mind tuned.

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Apple Investors, Just Where do We Stand?

September 9th, 2008 • Related • Filed Under

My take on the government bailout of Fannie and Freddie
Although we look to extend this rally some, I fear it won’t last. Unless of course we were to break through the Fibonacci levels I mentioned in today’s Market Outlook commentary in the Wilderness Forums. What I think is most likely to happen is that we fain a rally, then retest the July lows. Which on the S&P is 1200, as you well know.

My take on Oil and commodities in general
Oil is going down to sub 100 levels. There’s no stopping it, unless Ike turns into at least a Category 3 or better hurricane and OPEC decides to limit production severely. Even then, I only see this as a temporary glitch. The world economy is slowing, and demand is decreasing. OPEC can do nothing about that.

Commodities in general are in the dumpster. From Natural Gas, to Agriculture, to Steel. Virtually every corner of the sector has suffered from this bubble burst. And interestingly, there hasn’t been a corrective rally yet. Not with Oil or any other commodity. At some point there will be this rally, and it won’t bode well for the rest of equities.

My take on Apple’s Let’s Rock event
Apple needs to do something above the pale today. They need to both have Steve present, and prove to investors that he is healthy, and they need to have a “One more thing” that captures the attention of Wall Street. If they don’t, AAPL is going to get dragged down with the rest of the leaders of the Naz, namely GOOG, RIMM, and BIDU.

What would be “above the pale?” How about a camera on the iPod Touch. Drastic price reductions, a must have iPod lineup with mind blowing features, a huge upgrade in iTunes, perhaps a subscription service, etc. What do you think?

Go to the Forums, we want to know what you think. If you haven’t already registered for the forums, go here.

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marcos 3 months ago 1 point
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It won't matter if Steve comes out on stage looking like Charles Atlas in a black T-shirt. The market is taking AAPL down because that's what it likes to do. The only thing that will bump AAPL is earnings. The PE ratio seems to be the factor and due to market malaise it is stuck in a low multiple. With market optimism the multiple increases but for now, it is contracting, so the only thing left is earnings. They are not reported for the time being and no one is paying attention to Piper's forecasts. If its any comfort, we are all right on AAPL, its the best and it will go up.

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1 /people/marcos/ /people/marcos/following/

taojones 3 months ago 1 point
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nice use of the "pale" zach it means fence or fence post (usually around a graveyard) as you have used it but hopefully it will not refer to Steve's complexion if he takes stage at the event. (love the allusion)

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taojones 3 months ago 1 point
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marcos its a fence not a bridge Zack is saying "hit one over the fence" (out of the park a homer!!)

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