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Zach Bass (a.k.a Ernie Varitimos) is Chief Bloviator of Investor in the Wilderness. He has 30 years experience as a Tech Maven, Investor and Consultant. Zach has been using Macs since their introduction in 1984, and investing in the markets just as long. His mission is to help guide all level of investors through the Apple Ecosphere and make sense of the markets. Zach's take on Apple, the markets, and life pursuits, will keep your mind tuned.

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Apple Investors Be Patient the Volatility Must End

September 24th, 2008 • Related • Filed Under

If you have a weak constitution or low tolerance for pain, then I suggest you stand clear of the markets until the congressional hearings are concluded and we have the basis for a plan. The fact of the matter is that the markets are effectively on hold until there’s a resolution.

Since the bailout was announced, the Dow is up about 2 percent, you might expect more given the enormity of it all. But it is what it is. This market is in flux, and until there’s a positive word, we’re going to experience extremes in volatility. Look at the $VIX, it continues to climb! Today it’s still well above 36! That’s insane!


Although technical analysis is rather moot at this point, with the market moving on the bickering of congress rather than market forces, I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention that the VIX is extremely overbought. And it has negative divergences setting up on its Stochastics. If these indicators play out the VIX will move lower, and when the VIX moves lower the market generally moves higher.

One thing of which I’m sure, once congress has come to a resolution, this market will soar. In the mean time sit tight, play light. And for goodness sake if you take a position, make sure you put your protection on.

I think in the long run, AAPL is a good buy at these levels. It’s just that the game right now is like walking on glass. I have one suggestion for congress. Stop calling it the bailout, it just won’t sit well with the American people. It sounds like a plan that forgives the greedy execs of their malfeasance. They should call it the Invest in America Plan, or the Plan to Set America Straight.

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  • ruby tuesday
  • I don't get it RT, what the hell do these links have to do with my post? I'm advocating a long position with AAPL because the Volatility appears to be diminishing. Which in general is good for all stocks.

    And you found it necessary to post about how the SEC is investigating naked short selling? Where's your head at, or are you simply an antagonist, that enjoys puffing up your chest, because you have the uncanny ability to google a couple of web pages and copy and paste?

    Get a life will ya?
  • ruby tuesday
    let me explain then:

    This was not in response to your current post but in connection with previous discussions and exchanges about short selling and naked short selling. I would think they are very relevant to your public readers. Oh, and by the way they are not about naked shorting ONLY - They deal very specifically with the dissemination of lies to meet shorting goals and the prosecution and accountability for such actions.

    Quote: "The SEC
    should promptly issue a public report of the results of those examinations and provide clarity on
    the extent to which abusive and manipulative short selling and spreading of false rumors is tak-
    ing place (see our memos dated July 1, 14 and 16). Moreover, the SEC should promptly bring
    enforcement actions against those who are engaged in abusive and manipulative short selling.
    All these measures are vital to any attempt to maintain investor confidence in the
    fairness and integrity of the markets. It is a time for action. "

    Why is it that you cannot relate to anything but your agenda and when you do it's dismissal?

    Your past headlines in my opinion ( and commentary) qualify you as guilty of those abuses. Remember you have somehow managed to get your headlines listed daily in the Apple Investor News portal and as such you must be well aware of the impact and publicity you get . So get of your high horse and stop puffing you chest predicting the market like some academic professor. You want public, then act responsibly , show some humble pie and stop bragging about yourself and your stupid Martha's vineyard indulgence.

    Your website is public and should be to discussion of any topic that's relevant to your ongoing advocacy.

    So today you are long - does that mean you aren't guilty of shorting and hyping in the past or the future?

    Though the prevailing dumbed down ADD'd public will buy anything - Your past public record speaks for itself and is verifiable. You are guilty of self promotion and hyping your agenda. That's as much of what's screwed up the confidence in our markets and anyone reading would be well advised to check out the 3 links I posted.

    Respectfully Yours.
  • Thom
    I gotta ask RT, do you really think Zack's articles effect the Market? Really? I mean maybe if you took every blogger out there that talks about Apple and combined the investment portfolio value that is slotted for AAPL you might get enough to move to move the price a dollar or two for a few minutes but I'd say that's about it. This isn't some Penny Stock we're talking about. Take your soapbox to the hedgefunds, banks and Market Makers. They are the ones who move stuff. And I haven't seen Zack push around any rumors, in fact he railed against the whole SJ looking too thin thing as much as anybody.

    Breaking the law is well...illegal. It should be prosecuted, no doubt. Sadly they don't. Shorting isn't illegal, or wasn't until recently, but if you want it too be then write your Representatives. That's their job. In the current environment you have a better chance. But running around crying about it and calling names and what not isn't going to change anything except maybe make you feel better about yourself.

    And instead of cutting and pasting articles, try offering some of your own insight. What would YOU suggest to do during this current crisis? Where are you putting your money? Give us a strategy. Remember, a great deal of us here are traders so it is VERY common to go long and short on alternating days so that shouldn't supprise you. Since it seems like you are a long term planner do you suggest buying now? What's your time frame? What position sizing should we use? Do we go all in now or buy in bits and pieces? What's your stop-loss point? What's your target price? Help us out and drop some knowledge.

    Instead of always trying to tear Zack down, why don't you try building yourself up by giving solid, well though out advice. you don't always have to be right. If you where you'd be too rich to waste your time reading this blog or any blog for that matter so it's ok to be wrong, shit happens. Give yourself some credibility. Zack is very generous to dissenting voices, he hasn't deleted your account yet and unless you threaten violence I doubt he ever will. but do the rest of us a favor and show to us that you are more than a screamer.
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