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Zach Bass (a.k.a Ernie Varitimos) is Chief Bloviator of Investor in the Wilderness. He has 30 years experience as a Tech Maven, Investor and Consultant. Zach has been using Macs since their introduction in 1984, and investing in the markets just as long. His mission is to help guide all level of investors through the Apple Ecosphere and make sense of the markets. Zach's take on Apple, the markets, and life pursuits, will keep your mind tuned.

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Apple Investors Market Internals Tell the Brutal Truth

August 22nd, 2008 • Related • Filed Under
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So, yesterday I led with the idea that the bounce wasn’t so great, that there may be some residual bounce left in the markets to truly unwind the oversold conditions. And yesterday (August 21) the market was propped up by commodities and energy. Financials are still tanking, transports took it on the chin with the rise in Oil, and technology is in no-mans land. And if you followed the markets and AAPL yesterday it appeared as though there was strength as they rebounded a bit from the morning start and ended somewhat flat. 

By the way, the featured picture today was any exciting event put on by Robinson’s Racing Pigs at the Martha’s Vineyard Agricultural Fair. That’s John MacHam in the lead, followed by PorkChops Obama.

But the real story was under the covers. The market internals, the advancers versus the decliners. There was no broad based support of the market gains yesterday. In fact the vast majority of the market felt pain. The fact is that even though the Naz held its 50-day exponential moving average at 2365 and its 20-day moving average at 2371, the overall Tech heavy market had 5 decliners to every 3 advancers. And there were only 2 new highs to every 5 new lows. This is not the sign of a recovering market, this is the sign of a market with internal bleeding.

So today (Friday August 22) we have two big events. We have India coming on line to sell the iPhone, along with 19 other countries today, and we have the Fed Chief Ben Bernanke to deliver a keynote at the Jackson Hole symposium at 10 AM to tell us all how bad the financial industry is and how the Fed proposes to fix it. Yeah right.

So I’m going with the 20 countries for the rest of this blog, because quite frankly, the economy and the financial crisis are a real downer. Let’s just say that today will be hinged on Bernake’s tone thus things are unpredictable at this point, in terms of immediate direction, so in times like this I say go cash.

So back to the 20 countries. The 20 countries that are getting the iPhone are Argentina, Chile, Columbia, Czech Republic, Ecuador, El Savador, Estonia, Guatemala, Honduras, Hungary, India, Ivory Coast, Lithuania, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romainia, Slovakia and Uruguay. My source for this is the excellent AAPLInvestors website, where you can see all 70 countries that Apple has lined up for the iPhone.

The India deal seems bitter sweet to me. Sure they have a billion people there and thus many potential iPhone wannabes, but it has two big things going against it as an iPhone success story. 1) most of the country is dirt poor, and 2) there is NO 3G network anywhere in India, and won’t be any semblance of a 3G network until late in 2010! The only real benefit I think Apple will get out of the India deal is the halo effect of introducing Apple computers to a country that has a growing technology economy. So, long-term India good, short term, no big deal.

Quite frankly, you have to feel pretty much the same way about the rest of the countries on this list. Perhaps the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, and the Philippines may show some promise, but the rest of the countries on this list, strike me as third world. So, overall, I don’t put too much weight on today’s event.

If you’re looking to become a better trader, and how to best navigate turbulent markets, and most importantly, how to keep the money you have, then you should check out the Wilderness Investors Group. Click here to learn more and request membership. We have a vibrant community of professional and individual traders where you will learn how to exploit the markets and master the secrets of the trade.


More on this topic (What's this?)
Buy, Sell or Hold: Apple Inc. (Money Morning, 11/10/08)
Apple (AAPL): Steve Jobs' Replacement? (market folly, 11/19/08)
7 Great Lessons to Learn From Apple in the Last Year (Stock Trading To Go, 9/29/08)
Apple Stock Struggles With $180 Resistance (Stock Trading To Go, 8/21/08)
Read more on Apple at Wikinvest

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