About the Author

Zach Bass (a.k.a Ernie Varitimos) is Chief Bloviator of Investor in the Wilderness. He has 30 years experience as a Tech Maven, Investor and Consultant. Zach has been using Macs since their introduction in 1984, and investing in the markets just as long. His mission is to help guide all level of investors through the Apple Ecosphere and make sense of the markets. Zach's take on Apple, the markets, and life pursuits, will keep your mind tuned.

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Sidelined Apple Traders Fear Manipulation

July 31st, 2008 • Related • Filed Under

While I don’t believe there’s been manipulation, I do think that because of AAPL price liquidity and volatility, and because Apple is a quasi growth company, the stock price movements get amplified by prevailing sentiment of misinformed or ignorant analysts.

I also believe that hedge fund managers and MMs take advantage of that volatility. But I don’t believe any single entity has the power to manipulate a stock of this size, unless you believe there’s a conspiracy among these guys?

But the fact remains that many investors perceive this as manipulation because the price movement does not coincide with their analytical senses. And thus, many small investors shy away, IMO. This is anecdotal perception for sure, but perception often becomes reality.

I polled many Apple investor boards and a majority believed that AAPL was manipulated, making it very difficult to trade using standard analysis methodologies. In fact, a rather disturbingly large number of traders have abandoned trading AAPL all together.

Is AAPL Manipulated Beyond a Trader's Control?

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Thom 5 months ago 1 point
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It's been hard to trade AAPL based upon fundamentals and general market technicals but looking at aapl's tech signals and using prudence and common sense it's not impossible. I just find the frequency of my trades in aapl have decreased.

AAPL's market cap is too big to manipulate at the level of volatility we've seen lately.

It's a crappy market in general, lots of rumors still not effectively quashed and the concern for lowered margins keeps appl from being a easy play long.

A wonderful history, strong fundamentals, loyal core consumers and an expanding sphere of influlence keep it from being an easy short.

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crazyhorse 5 months ago 1 point
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apple still carries the stigma of not being a microsoft software company.

I have aapl, I own the equiptment, but the bias is still there, and the funny the joe q public is too stupid to know what a good running reliable computer experience is and never will. We will have to wait for the next generation of iPod and macbook users still transend through the it business world and for apple to get back in to elementary school to get the final foothold and rule the world.

vista has helped greatly, but not enough just yet.

One more killer product on the mass market wouldn't hurt. till then a slow paced race, but pace always wins the race. And apple like lance has ridden a ride that will go into history books...

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macfan 5 months ago 1 point
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I am continually surprised at what a waste of time your articles are. Give it up.

Thom...You're having trouble trading based on fundamentals? Is that really what you meant to say? The fundamentals have consistently been fantastic. It's the the bogus tech analysis and garbage like this autho'rs articles that create the problem.

Zach - Jackass - It is you and your stupid headlines that keep a BS technical push moving.

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Zach Bass 5 months ago 1 point
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Man, you definitely have issues.

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Macfan 5 months ago 1 point
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My "issue" is reading headlines that seek to shock investors rather than present good info. You are the self proclaimed guru. Why don't you try doing some good old discounted cash flow analysis and telling us what you come up with. It would be a refreshing change. Your looking back at technical triggers and reading peoples comments to draw your conclusions is
meaningless. You've got plenty of peoples attention, how about some real work now.

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Macfan 5 months ago 1 point
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BTW, the jackass comment is what the auto complete on my iPhone put in place of my typing zach bass. It must be karma.

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FullEnglish 5 months ago 1 point
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You and the guys on your forum are the ones saying ' go to cash' or 'sell' and then you start talking about manipulation, as if you don't have any effect on the market. Apple is only moving with the general market anyway.

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Zach Bass 5 months ago 1 point
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I'm saying manipulation is not rampant, and therefor it's not the reason for trader's consternation. I'm simply pointing out that many do feel this way, and as a result it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy for them.

Most large cap stocks move with the market, or should I say that the market moves with the preponderance of large cap stocks. Apple, due to its size, may appear to be a large cap, but in fact behaves like a growth stock.

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nxtr 5 months ago 1 point
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Zach bashing idiots aside, there is the legitimate possibility of Steve Jobs' health being a concern, mixed with the need for some investors to cash in on a stock that has weathered the downturn fairly well, in order to take advantage of extremely attractive financials.

these factors do ignore the fundamentals, which seem to indicate 25+% growth annually, which should lead to a 200 price.

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nxtr 5 months ago 1 point
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But as soon as enough small investors have dumped it out of frustration, I wouldn't be surprise to see it pop. The manipulation factor is IMO a legitimate one, since a susbstantial percentage of float would be within the capital control of a few hedge funds, if they played a game in concert.

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Rex Hess 5 months ago 1 point
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probably someone who loves Bill Gates

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marcos 5 months ago 1 point
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Will it matter even if it is being manipulated? No. There is no backbone in the SEC or DOJ to pursue any of these crimes.

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tpm 5 months ago 1 point
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Did you read the question? Could you correct it so it reads right?

"Is AAPL is" contains one too many is's.

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Zach Bass 5 months ago 1 point
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Thanks, edit has been made.

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edcba 5 months ago 1 point
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I believe that Cramer manipulates AAPL and other stocks.

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crazyhorse 5 months ago 1 point
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Zack I have been watching your site for a little bit and you are tending to do what the rest are doing now that you are getting a bit popular.

Try sticking to the basics. I don't buy the emotional crap that many of the day traders do.

Crammer is fucking clown, don't go down that path.

You seem to have a bit of a brain, but it you take you blog down the crammer lane I will drop you link faster than GM stock.

Keep the faith...

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Zach Bass 5 months ago 1 point
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Crazyhorse, help me out, what have I done that strays from the good path? Is there something I could do to improve the blog?

I have four basic things I do here; 1) provide my irreverent analysis of the markets and how I think it affects apple investors, 2) provide editorials about things that irk me or cause me to squawk, 3) write about trading and investing technique and methodology, and 4) I've recently added polls to get a pulse of readers.

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crazyhorse 5 months ago 1 point
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Find that balance that allows you to do all that you have in place without using sensationalized headline that merely pull readers based on outlandish fodder. Enough with the tabloid headlines of bad, doom and gloom, etc...

You're smart you can come up with better that doesn't get half the morons writing flame material to you or your site.

I like your site when I first started reading it, and I check it out every now and then. But now it seems I catch it on some lame off the wall link statement and find that it is your site.

Sorry, just my two cents.

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